Sterling continues to strengthen against Euro. Orderly break up for the Eurozone?

Euro break-up - let Germany lead the northern bloc and France the rest

I tend to put off exchanging GBP into Euros, thinking that I will probably get a better exchange rate “tomorrow”. This is not entirely down to being tight, as recent exchange rates show. This is the official exchange rate over the last three months – touching 1.27 briefly yesterday:

UK Pound Sterling vs Euro Intraday Forex Chart

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

whilst this is the same over the last twelve months:

UK Pound Sterling vs Euro Intraday Forex Chart

UK Pound Sterling vs Euro Intraday Forex Chart

You actually have to go back five years to see the collapse of Sterling against the Euro from 1.5 to near parity in a very short time indeed during the very start of the “financial crisis”.

 

 

The point of this exercise, inevitably, is guessing what will happen to the Euro in the future, and that is where everybody is uncertain leading to the lack of confidence that is dragging the world economy and Europe in particular down.

Last September, as Europe grappled with the sovereign debt crisis in Greece, Lord Wolfson (Chief Executive of Next) launched a £250,000 economics prize with contributors being challenged to chart the course Europe should take in the event the euro fell apart. The challenge specifically was “If member states leave the Economic and Monetary Union, what is the best way for the economic process to be managed to provide the soundest foundation for the future growth and prosperity of the current membership?”

Roger Bootle, MD of Capital Economics, who also writes for the Telegraph, won the prize for devising the "smoothest" plan for a break-up of the eurozone. His idea was for a northern monetary union centred on Germany, and including Austria, the Netherlands and Luxembourg, and perhaps Finland and Belgium, with a French-led bloc of former eurozone nations. The full article is here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/9378302/Euro-break-up-Let-Germany-lead-the-northern-core-and-France-the-rest.html

Finally, ending on a less serious note, but for those following the weather in the UK the recent Matt cartoons from the Telegraph are brilliant!

Matthttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/

9 thoughts on “Sterling continues to strengthen against Euro. Orderly break up for the Eurozone?”

  1. Thanks for that Admin = 1.5 was indeed a good time to buy here. Apparently Austrian house prices are forever upwards….less so in the “country” though. Strong economy? A strong future monetary base indeed.

    Reply
  2. According to an article in thursday’s Times, countries that host the Olmpics always suffer a rise in the value of their currency prior and during the games.
    The day after the games finish their currency reverts to its previously held value.
    Indeed one invester had been investing most of his life in this fashion, buying the Olympic host nation’s currency then immmediately buying the next one, in this case Brazilian Reals.
    Proportionally 100 US dollars over 6 games was turned into 1100 dollars.
    So if this man is correct buy you Euros with Sterling within the next 2/3 weeks.
    The value could drop after the Games.
    I suppose its because so many foreign visitors to England are buying Sterling all at once it drives up Sterling’s value.
    We shall soon see.

    Reply
  3. Funchal (Madeira) Airport currently outside of wind limits for arriving air traffic – wind betweeb 340 – 030 degress, 26 gusting 35 knots at runway threshold, with “tail” winds, wind shear, mod to severe turb and updrafts on short finals to RW 05 …. x2 aicraft diverted Port Santo, x3 in the hold. Should improve later…..departures O.K.

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  4. Well, all inbound flghts EVENTUALLY made it ….. after several bumpy, lumpy and thumpy attempts and arrivals – APART from:

    Brussels TUI Belgium TB 5937 16:45

    Which after a somewhat “nightmare” final attempt at approx 22:00 hrs returned to Porto Santo, for the second time, to spend the night there….drinks in the bar then!

    It was indeed rough at times ….. my only real concern was for the (Lady) Pilot (and pax) of a TAP flight that appeared to have pushed it’s luck somewhat = it was at times widely out of control and attempting to land outside of the recommended limits and really should have “gone round” again …… but it did manage to land O.K. – this time……

    Any onboard pax like to tell the tale?

    The Air Traffic Control here did do a super job = constantly reporting “actual” conditions, informing Pilots when “out of limits” and offering excellent hold/diversion information.

    Feel very sorry for all the pax delayed/late arrivals etc….especially so for the TUI flight.

    Reply
  5. some years ago we came in on a BA flight: very bumpy decent, the plane actually got blown slightly sideways as we almost touched down. the pilot aborted only a few feet off the runway and we rapidly climbed away. As we circled the pilot (very calm) announced that as we clearly had failed to land that we were being held for another landing slot in 45 minutes time. “unfortunately we only have fuel for 30 minutes more flight”. Silence… ” so we shall head over to Porto Santo and try our luck there!”
    Splendid meal and accommodation in a 5* hotel. When we flew back over next day there was a spontaneous round of applause when we touched down, something that i have noticed happening on all subsequent landings in the years since.

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  6. from dnoticias Yellow warning
    Today the temperature can reach 29 º

    By Wednesday, temperatures will be higher in Madeira, which has resulted in a yellow warning by the Institute of Meteorology.

    The maximum temperature today should reach at 29 º C to 31 ° and tomorrow, and will start to decline from Wednesday.

    Also UV rays back today to be at maximum level, so that the second recommendation of the Institute of Meteorology, should be avoided as much as possible exposure to the sun

    The sky is now generally fine, with periods of increased cloud cover on northern slopes by early afternoon.

    The wind will be moderate (20 to 35 km / h) northeast.

    With respect to the sea state. North Coast: Waves from the northeast with 1.5 to 2 meters. South Coast: Waves 1 meter southeast. Temperature of the sea water: 21/22 ° C

    Reply
  7. Gusty variable wind (010 to 030* 15/35 knts) again causing a “few” missed approaches to RW05 at the Airport….but no diversions as yet.

    For example: A 020*degree wind in excess of 22 knots is considered outside the safe landing limits for a Boeing 767 800 series (Transavia) = exceeds crosswind landing limit.

    Reply

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